Will linear television be an extinct business by the end of the decade?

[AnimatedFan01]

I wasn't sure whether to post this in the general Entertainment board or here, but since I'm talking about kids linear TV specifically and most of it is cartoons, I'm posting here. Anyway...

With the rate at which things are going, do you think CN, Nick and Disney are on their way out of the linear television business and will be replaced by streaming on HBO Max, Paramount+ and Disney+ respectively?

They hardly show kids' commercials during any of the three networks' shows (I'm counting Disney XD since the regular Disney Channel feed has always been just promos and sponsors). It's all apps, services and products geared toward adults, like insurance companies, banking, household cleaning products, and the food or snack commercials have been severely minimalized to fit into the digital age trend by focusing more on adult consumers, lacking funny storylines or mascots.

It's why Adult Swim starts at 5PM now, a massive stark in contrast to when it started at 11PM from Mon-Sat and 10PM on Sundays back in 2008.

Nowadays the hype around kids TV seems to be all about Bluey, Peppa Pig, PAW Patrol, and basically "preschool" shows. SpongeBob is still and always will be part of that hype. The Loud House was at the time of its premiere but has died down ever since the movies and live-action adaptations. The ones that are popular among the online cartoon community like The Owl House, Amphibia, The Ghost and Molly McGee, and Moon Girl Devil Dinosaur had all been screwed over by Disney (save for Amphibia because the creator only intended 3 seasons) and are more popular with teens and adults than young kids. Kiff and Big City Greens sit somewhere in between; I'm not sure how popular they are among kids today, but I don't exactly see too many adults hyping them up.

All Nickelodeon has now is SpongeBob, TLH, The Smurfs, and PAW Patrol; I don't know how well Rock Paper Scissors is doing. But I know the N@N lineup is purely reruns of syndicated network sitcoms and they've never aired originals for Lord knows how long.

CN is on life support right now and has no single upcoming program not based off a pre-existing franchise. Their schedule now consists of spamming Scooby-Doo, Gumball, TTG and Regular Show. They don't give "The Heroic Quest of the Valiant Prince Ivandoe", "Tiny Toons Looniversity" or "We Baby Bears" enough exposure. Two of their original programs are preschool-oriented, and we all thought CN was done with that after Tickle U failed (or more precisely, after they nixed The Mr. Men Show). AS is making better strides, but they still haven't resolved their problem of spamming Bob's and Family Guy 5 or 6 times a day. Or bringing back the other Checkered Past shows now that they've made new bumpers for them; it's clear now that Dexter's return wasn't just to promote the new season of Primal.

Since kids practically don't grow up on cable TV today, what's the point of keeping it on the air? Is it still a profitable business for the adult viewers keeping in touch with the nostalgic tradition or keeping track of schedule archives?

 

[SpecialColorfull]

I think Broadcast TV will survive a bit longer but cable is done for.

 

[RandomMe]

I'm pretty sure only the larger OTA networks will survive. Cable is facing a series of crises that don't have solutions. Plus, there's also the rising number of cord cutters around the world

 

[Light Lucario]

While streaming has taken off and cord cutting has become much more common, I have a hard time seeing all three major kids networks shutting down within the next four years, much less cable as a whole. It isn't impossible and it's hard to say for sure either way, but I don't think either HBO Max or Paramount+ for that matter are in a good enough position to basically replace Cartoon Network and Nickelodeon. Even before the Netflix potential merger came up, HBO Max rebranding itself twice, removing a lot of their animated shows and increasing their prices with little advanced warning really doesn't give off the impression that the site was doing well enough. They never really knew what kind of audience they were catering to, which is a shame because they have a lot of shows and movies that can appeal to kids, adults and families. Assuming that the deal with Netflix goes through, it will most likely go the way of Hulu, being an additional tier to another more successful streaming service until they completely merge in a couple of years.

Paramount+ definitely isn't in the best of shape either. I wouldn't be shocked if they never recovered from losing a lot of accounts last year, which could explain part of the reason why they moved the Avatar movie to their streaming platform. It was never one of the more popular streaming sites out there to begin with. Disney is a weird kind of position since most of their new shows, both animated and live action, can't seem to last more than a season or two. I could see them shutting down Disney XD. I'm surprised it is still around in a way since I thought it would have shut down ages ago, but I could see them keeping Disney Channel going just to help keep their brand in the public sphere. Disney+ could more easily replace it compared to the other channels here, but Disney Channel has been around for so long that I don't know if they'd shut it down completely in the near future.

I could see cable in general going for awhile longer if cable providers offer cheaper plans. Sports are still a huge draw for cable too from what I understand. If these companies want their streaming platforms to completely replace their network cable channels, then they would definitely need to do a better job at promoting their shows, go for a weekly release instead of the Netflix binge method and stop removing shows off of their platforms.

 

[Surreal Kangaroo]

I don’t think cable is going to go away completely in the next few years. There’s still an audience of mostly older adults who rarely stream. Plus, like mentioned earlier, sports is still a big draw on cable.

 

[SpecialColorfull]

I don’t think cable is going to go away completely in the next few years. There’s still an audience of mostly older adults who rarely stream. Plus, like mentioned earlier, sports is still a big draw on cable.

That's what Broadcast Diginets are for.

 

[RandomMe]

That's what Broadcast Diginets are for.

At least those networks tend to have more variety than certain cable networks.

 

[Space Cadet]

I have mentioned this before but I think linear television will go the way of radio and you'll have your broadcast networks and only a handful of cable networks left. I think cord cutting will reach a plateau and I don't think it'll go down to zero. Radio has had multiple challengers throughout its lifespan(movies, tv, internet, streaming, podcasts) but it's still here, even in its diminished state.

 

[ramblin]

Kids' linear television as a concept is already pretty much extinct. However, I fail to see how this means linear as a whole will die in the next four years. There's very clearly still an audience of people who cling on to linear. I do think cable will be significantly scaled down, but it'll limp along regardless, and non-cable stuff like the big broadcast networks and the diginets are for certain going to be another immortal staple similar to radio.

I do wonder when the practice of having linear channels premiere shows will end, though. THAT I could see coming in the next four years with how ridiculously wide the disparity between the two is now.

 

[RandomMe]

I have mentioned this before but I think linear television will go the way of radio and you'll have your broadcast networks and only a handful of cable networks left. I think cord cutting will reach a plateau and I don't think it'll go down to zero. Radio has had multiple challengers throughout its lifespan(movies, tv, internet, streaming, podcasts) but it's still here, even in its diminished state.

Maybe we'll even experience a time only our parents lived when there were fewer channels but still more choice.

 

[Francisque]

Maybe we'll even experience a time only our parents lived when there were fewer channels but still more choice.

It's like: fewer channels but also of a fewer quality, as less eyeballs are watching and the few that are watching want to watch staples

But there is a "choice": to watch content on streaming services.
Literally nothing changes in the content itself, except less advertising on streaming

I mean, yeah, linear TV can still be somehow nice, but it also has many flaws like excessive advertising. Linear TV will still work for live events and as a kind of "showcase" or "window" for what you can find on streaming, nothing else.

Is it the end of the world? I don't think so... my problem with it is more about about the attrition of quality due to streaming, not the streaming itself, which I use quite often.
But let's be real, junk TV has always existed. Actually, there probably is less junk TV à la E! (celebrity obsessed stuff)

 

[RandomMe]

But let's be real, junk TV has always existed. Actually, there probably is less junk TV à la E! (celebrity obsessed stuff)

There was junk TV in the times of the Portuguese monopoly, but it wasn't reality programming. It was mostly government information programs barely anyone was interested.

Though the junk proper began to appear when TV was deregulated.

Initially it was minimal but the public perception of the rise in American imports caused by the launch of SIC and TVI was mixed. Some said that The Cosby Show and the Italian game show Colpo Grosso - yes, that aired here too - on SIC were trash, but they had an audience.

Now we have another amount of junk, which includes long news bulletins (not reaching the same level of fearmongering as Latin American networks), endless Sunday afternoon programs that are unwatchable and TVI being dependent on Big Brother and derived reality shows without taking entire weeks off.

Portuguese TV has become as I say "conservative to foreign content" (there are fewer movies because they're expensive now) and I guess it will remain that way for years on end, until the remainders of the linear bubble will burst.

 

[FirePuppy]

I think they'll get rid of everything minus Discovery Family, when it comes to uplevel cable networks.

 

[Pooky]

Latest estimates suggest around 69million homes in the US still have cable. That's down from around 105 in 2010, and it seems safe to assume it will drop further (and faster) still, but even so there will probably be around 50million homes in the US that still have cable in 2030. That's not a thriving business, but it's also not a base that will be abandoned completely. Not impossible that Nick, Disney Channel and certainly CN will be gone by 2030, but cable as a whole? Very unlikely.

 

[RandomMe]

Related.

Latest estimates suggest around 69million homes in the US still have cable. That's down from around 105 in 2010, and it seems safe to assume it will drop further (and faster) still, but even so there will probably be around 50million homes in the US that still have cable in 2030. That's not a thriving business, but it's also not a base that will be abandoned completely. Not impossible that Nick, Disney Channel and certainly CN will be gone by 2030, but cable as a whole? Very unlikely.

It seems that the cable penetration is still high in Portugal, but even here, we watch mostly local channels.

Looks like the linear bubble burst at some stage in the 2010s.

 

[Eurbane]

This might take time, we had to survive.

 

[Scofisticated]

I think it would take something major for cable and/or broadcast to vanish. Not impossible, but older ppl trust that more than streaming.

I can see there being less cable, as the audience for is shortens. I think the adage of 500 channels, will become 400, 200, 100, etc, as time goes on.

 

[RandomMe]

I think it would take something major for cable and/or broadcast to vanish. Not impossible, but older ppl trust that more than streaming.

I can see there being less cable, as the audience for is shortens. I think the adage of 500 channels, will become 400, 200, 100, etc, as time goes on.

That's what I like to call the "linear bubble". Most of it had burst already.

 

[Pro D Yungster]

Maybe this is optimistic but I don't think it's going anywhere for the foreseeable future. Many people are fed up of the diminishing returns by streaming services - perhaps having a variety of them and dipping in and out monthly is more attractive to Americans but I don't think this works well in Europe. Just 2-3 streaming services can easily cost far more than a similar package with a cable/satellite provider. Not to even mention Freeview.

There is a chatter and a narrative beginning to take hold over the access to devices children have, and we all know Pre schooler parents prefer linear content over youtube for their kids. I think it stands to reason that for older age groups it would also make sense. Really, it depends on how governments choose to invest into kids TV for older age groups. We're at more of a precipice, really.

Anyway, Kids linear TV doesn't start and end at CN, Disney and Nick. Perhaps those networks should evaluate their shortcomings and innovate. I think CN is a walking skeleton however

 

[Action!]

I doubt it will be extinct by the end of the decade.