Been busy the past few days. Sure you've been waiting with bated breath.
Rachel Maddow lays some hard, cold truth upside yo head. If you're going to watch one post election reaction, watch this one.
Literally came here to post that, heh.
Scattered thoughts:
- Romney's concession was honorable, uniting, and humble.
- One of the big winners: math, specifically statistics. Nate Silver basically nailed it; people who knew what they're talking about regarding polling were more or less accurate. The biggest error might've been that North Dakota and Montana were generally considered to lean towards the GOP. The fact that Romney was shellshocked at his loss and was completely unaware he would lose, to the point where I'm starting to believe the "didn't write a concession speech" story is actually true, is fairly amazing to me - either the candidate was kept away from people who knew what the polls were saying (possible), or the people in Romney's camp really believed the unskew the polls, MSM conspiracy narrative. I honestly hope it's just the former, because the latter is a scary thought.
- Most notable about the win: 18-to-29 year olds went for Obama only slightly less hard, and made up
more of the electorate than 2008, and minority voters went harder and also made up more of the electorate than 2008. The Obama coalition held.
- The Senate wins are downright impressive. Even in June, "GOP takes the Senate" was an established, entirely believable narrative. Instead, the battlegrounds shifted from Ohio and Florida to places like Montana and Nevada. The only real GOP wins were Arizona and Nevada - the former shouldn't have even been a race, and in the latter a much better candidate squeaked out a single point victory. The Democratic Senate majority also got a lot more progressive - moderate non-entity Herb Kohl gets replaced by Tammy Baldwin, DINO Joe Lieberman is replaced by Chris Murphy, Elizabeth Warren, etc.
- The GOP's House majority is deceptive and pretty much based on gerrymandering. The results are still pouring in (give it a week or so), but last I checked the Democrats actually got over 50 percent of the House vote nationwide, and the GOP are still holding a solid majority. Hey, them's the breaks, that's how this works - but it's no mandate, no matter what Mitch McConnell says.
- Earlier today, Karl Rove had to report to his billionaire donors why the ads didn't work. Rasmussen's polls were inaccurate and showed a systematic GOP bias. Dick Morris....well, yeah, Dick Morris. lol @ all of these
- The long lines that people had to wait in in swing states is legitimately horrifying and should be a national embarrassment. Obama saying we need to do something about that was one of the best lines from his speech.
- Look, I'm not going to concern-troll, but really, I'm not sold on the concept that Romney didn't sell conservatism well enough and that's why he lost. His big rise in the polls in the first debate was based basically entirely on moderation - in a few instances he actually attacked Obama from the
left (Dodd-Frank not taking care of Too Big To Fail, health care reform not doing enough to deal with rising health care costs, etc). Gay marriage will be a dead issue in 10 years or so (4 wins! finally breaking that awful streak), and being associated with it will become more and more of a liability. The abortion split in this country is a complicated issue where it's hard for anyone to declare a majority - but one thing is for certain, the Akin/Mourdock rape talk and policy position is completely outside the mainstream and unacceptable (the Tea Party is, single-handedly, fully responsible for the Democrats winning in Indiana). Immigration reform will likely be a second term Obama item, and the hardline position is going to result in Latino numbers like Romney's - though I suspect the GOP are already pivoting on this, and
I laughed amazingly hard at Sean Hannity's sudden change of heart. Also, uh, we really oughta try and do SOMETHING about this whole climate change business - I hope, but admit I don't know, that Sandy might've woke up the general public on this point. Dog whistles like "Obama removed the work requirement from welfare" are working less and less - and by the time John Sununu is claiming Powell endorsed Obama because he's black, are becoming less and less subtle. And I think more and more people are recognizing this stuff for what it really is. Look, I get at least some of these are major value decisions for some people - but I think the electoral truth is pointing to some of this stuff becoming more and more toxic.
- In fact, I might be able to be convinced that going hard to their base and doubling down on tea party conservatism could give the GOP the edge in the next midterm (not saying I do believe this, just that it might be true) - but I'm pretty sure the days of that working in presidential elections is over. The GOP is going to have to figure this out, and it's not going to be easy.
- There's some signs the economy is sincerely improving, and the single biggest implication of this election is that Obama is highly likely to get credit for it. If Romney had been sitting in the chair, he would've gotten the credit. If it turns out the indicators are right, this will validate a lot of Obama's terms.
- LEGAL WEED WOOOOOOOOO woooo!!!!!!!!!! brb moving 2 colorado
- So glad to see Joe Walsh and Allen West (he's contesting that he lost though, lol) are gone. Was refreshing Michele Bachmann's results all night - she's immortal or something. Steve King survived easily. =(
- One of the big "what if"s of history is going to be where we would've wound up if Obama hadn't sucked at the first debate. Honestly don't know the answer to that question.
- The big damper in my night was a local race which I had some involvement in didn't go my way - though we actually did quite well, given the circumstances. I know someone wins and someone loses in these things, but it's a bit different when you actually know the people involved.
Okay that's a lot of thoughts. Overall, am quite satisfied. Enjoyed reading this thread as well, always good to get some different perspectives.